這屆大學生還愿意結婚生娃嗎？最新調查結果出人意料……

近期，中國人民大學人口與發展研究中心聯合舉辦了“中國大學生婚育觀研討會”，會上公布《中國大學生婚育觀報告》。報告指出，61%的大學生明確表示會結婚，僅有7%明確表示不結婚，同時理想結婚年齡為27.82歲。總體而言大學生的結婚意愿高于預期。

A report released recently shows that 61 percent of college students were certain that they would get married, with only 7 percent rejecting the possibility completely. Their ideal age for marriage averaged 27.8.

從生育意愿來看，大學生群體的平均理想子女數為1.85，超過80%的大學生明確表示，他們的理想子女數是兩個。

The ideal number of children was 1.85, and over 80 percent of college students put the ideal number of children at two.

該報告抽取將近9,800份受訪者樣本，他們的平均年齡約為20.3歲，來自全國30所高校，獨生子女占比將近36%。

The report surveyed nearly 9,800 students pursuing an undergraduate, graduate or doctoral degree between November and December last year. The average age of respondents was 20.3.

這一結果讓研究者和部分網民都有些吃驚。近些年，中國的結婚登記數和出生人口數持續走低，2021年我國結婚登記數據為763.7萬對，創30多年來新低；而2021年全年出生人口僅為1062萬人，2020年該數字為1200萬。

Marriages and birthrates have been on the decline in China for years. Official data shows that around 7.64 million marriages were registered in 2021, the lowest figure in more than three decades. The number of newborns last year also fell to 10.62 million, compared with 12 million in 2020.

隨著去年五月底三孩生育政策及配套支持措施的出臺，關于如何提升結婚生育意愿的討論也涉及到“Z世代”青年，也就是1995年到2010年出生的年輕人，包括很大一部分大學生群體。

Generation Z ：broadly defined as people born between 1995 and 2010.

中國人民大學家庭與性別研究中心主任李婷教授接受采訪時表示，研究結果提示大學生對婚姻和生育仍有期待。

Li Ting, a professor from the Renmin University of China's Population Development Studies Center and one of the researchers involved in the survey, said, "The younger generation's yearning for marriage is still evident."

“這體現了中國文化的底色。區別于西方國家的去家庭化、去婚姻化和去制度化，中國文化底色中的家庭聯系還是很重要的，大學生對婚姻和家庭仍然有向往。”她說道。

但是，李婷認為，這份報告最核心的信息應該是在當代中國大學生眼中，婚姻和生育的價值基礎已經發生變化。“我們不能用過去的想法來看待年輕人。”她說道。

"The fundamental value of marriage and family has changed in the eyes of college students. For the rest of society and policymakers, it is time to break away from old social stigmas and adapt to new trends among the young," Li said.

報告顯示，在促進結婚意愿的因素上，大學生最看重的是婚姻的精神情感支持功能，同時也希望兼顧物質支持屬性；在對生育效用的感知上，大學生更看重養育子女的意義與情感價值，考慮最少的是子女的保障功能。

Instead of seeing marriage primarily as a source of financial security, they expect marriage to provide emotional and spiritual satisfaction, according the report. In terms of childbearing, most respondents resonated strongly with the perception that raising a child is important and meaningful, and that a baby can be a source of happiness. Fewer cared about their child’s role in taking care of them later in life.

也就是說，大學生選擇戀愛的主要原因是要尋找一個人互相幫助。實現共同進步的目標；選擇婚姻是尋求精神上的支持陪伴和互相傾訴、自我價值的需求；而選擇生育則是在實現自身成長的同時，獲得陪伴子女成長的情感價值。

"They (college students) engage in a romantic relationships to find a partner to grow old with and work toward important goals. They want to get married to have someone to talk to and as an emotional buttress at home. They want to have a baby as a supplement to their growth and help nurture their marital relationship," Li said.

李婷表示，在整個過程中，他們都更突出“自己的情感價值和意義”，這區別于上一輩將結婚和生育視為一種社會規范，或是更看重婚姻和家庭的社會功能基礎。

其中最典型的一個例子就是“養兒防老”觀念的淡化。

一位接受采訪的大二學生坦言，“養兒防老”聽上去非常可笑。“如果我想為自己的晚年多添一份保障，我還不如去能多買幾份保險來得實際。”她說道。

"The saying — raise children to support yourself in your old age — sounds absurd to me," said a sophomore student in a university in Beijing. "If I need some assurance about how I'll be looked after when I’m old, it's better I buy more insurance."

面對Z世代青年，各種花式“催婚”、“催生”可能反而會引起他們的反感。

在國家鼓勵生育、積極減輕生育養育教育負擔的大背景下，李婷表示，“催婚”、“催生”對于現在的年輕人或許沒有很大用處，他們更需要耐心和漫長的理解。

"It is pointless to try to force young people to get married and have children. The rest of society needs to be patient and try to understand their position," she added.

此份報告另外一個重要發現是對下一步生育配套支持政策的啟發。

報告顯示，在對生育阻礙因素的感知上，住房和養育成本對大學生影響最大，且男大學生更在意婚育成本，女大學生更在意自我發展機會，這提示必須考慮統合兩性需求的公共政策。

中國人口學會副會長、南開大學經濟學教授原新在研討會上提到，在“公領域”，女性參與社會勞動的形象已經深入人心，但是在“私領域”，男性依然有更多的理由去投身于職場奮斗、掙錢養家，照顧家庭和孩子的更多壓在了女性身上。“所以女性的壓力非常大，”他說。

Yuan Xin, deputy president of the China Population Association and a professor at Nankai University, said that in recent years, the participation of women in the work force has become a norm in China, but that women still shoulder the bulk of responsibility in the private domain, namely, household chores and taking care of children. "No doubt they are under a lot of pressure," he said.

專家表示，在出臺生育支持措施時，不應當將工作和生育對立起來，而應當盡力滿足女性對自身成長、工作發展的需求。

As China rolls out a series of supportive measures to encourage births and facilitate the implementation of its three-child policy, experts said that it is essential for new policies to incorporate the concerns of both genders.

我國多地已經出臺了諸如延長產假、提供生育津貼等生育支持措施，效果仍待評估。隨著當代大學生逐漸邁入社會，他們在人生的岔路口會做出什么樣的選擇？我們也拭目以待。

記者：王小予

編輯：商楨

來源：嚴肅的人口學八卦微信公眾號 民政局 國家統計局